Influencing Factors:
1. International: The probability of interest rate cuts is changing rapidly; pay close attention to the latest developments. Short-term domestic policy support is limited; monitor subsequent policy changes.
2. Supply Side: This week, pig iron production decreased by 0.6 million tons to 2.3628 million tons. High-speed pig iron production is expected to further increase the supply of finished steel products. Production of the five major steel products increased by 15.53 million tons to 8.4991 million tons, indicating a rebound in production and increased supply. The price of aluminized zinc-coated steel coils is predicted to fluctuate by $3-4 this week.
3. Demand Side: Total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 44.25 million tons to 14.331 million tons, while apparent demand increased by 33.56 million tons to 8.9416 million tons. Apparent demand rebounded, and the data was better than the previous period, indicating a slight improvement in the supply-demand structure.
4. Raw Material Side: Raw material differentiation continues. In the short term, pig iron production remains high, supporting iron ore demand and significantly supporting iron ore prices. However, in the medium to long term, future supply and inventory pressures are significant, putting downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, coking coal and coke remain weak due to price stabilization and supply guarantees.
